Patiently waiting pho growth…



If a stock I suggest ever goes down a few points, I’m sure to get an e-mail from my uncle.  “I’m losing so much money in XYZ!” It used to make me feel bad.  I was the cause of someone losing money, they trusted me and I failed.  The horror!  First, stock investing is risky, I think that’s understood by most people.  Second, judging a stock on its daily performance, or weekly, or monthly, is much too short-sighted.  Investing for one month, one week, is a very difficult exercise, and unless you know something the market doesn’t (it’s called being a Martha Stewart), it’s something I would advise against attempting.

So, the ATG has a couple big movers in its first weeks of investing.  VNM (Market Vectors Vietnam ETF) has taken a turn for the worse, down about 7% since ATG bought an initial position 3 weeks ago.  The country itself isn’t in any real danger(at least I haven’t heard anything, but I’ve always been suspicious of Laos), but the index took a tumble.  VNM is one of the stocks Maverick and I agree on.  We want emerging market exposure.  Over time poorer countries with stable leadership should outgrow richer nations as globalization continues.  Vietnam is an underappreciated economy with over 70 million people and an average age of 29 years old.  It’s growing faster than its neighbors, and has a reasonably well-diversified economy.  (Services ~40%, Industry ~40%, Agriculture 20%)  They have crude reserves.  (It’s their largest export). 

This Vietnam index has retail, oil & gas, banking, fertilizer, and the largest company is a conglomerate that does everything mentioned.  The index will be a good  measure of the economic growth of Vietnam.  I’m looking forward to the next purchase so we can average down.  Nothing has changed with my long-term thesis, I can now just buy at a better price.  Of course this ties into risk management, and position sizing, which we will talk about another time.




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