Avoiding the Oil Bet

Oil Picture 1-10

I don’t think I could ever work for a macro-strategy investment company.  When I hear about investment ideas centered around relative currency strength, anticipated interest rate movement, commodity prices, and yes, world-wide oil supply/ demand, my head starts to spin and I have trouble seeing the forest from the trees.  I’m much more comfortable opining on whether I think people would prefer to eat a Big Mac or Whopper (and who has a better balance sheet) than what’s going to happen to worldwide beef prices because of the political situation in Brazil.  That doesn’t mean that I don’t at least try to understand macro issues and their implications; rather, I try to know my limitations and keep the faith that my investment strategy will eventually weather various macro storms I don’t fully understand if I can find good value in great long-term businesses.

With oil prices down almost 50% in the last six months alone, every investment expert is weighing in with their view on how this will affect the market.  It’s a complicated issue- obviously lower gas prices for consumers is great in that people can spend their money on other things and great for countries that rely on importing gas, but it’s not so great if energy-related loans start defaulting and impacting banks or the U.S. loses a big chunk of the previous job gains over the past 5 years that were energy related.

My conclusion on this whole issue is that I simply don’t know what’s going to happen with oil prices and how it will affect the overall market, so I’d like to explore opportunities within the market that are less impacted by oil prices (or ideally not at all impacted).

Below are some of my thoughts on stocks/ themes that meet two criteria:  (i) I think they are good stand-alone investments ideas for 2015 and (ii) I don’t think that oil price movement (good or bad) will have a huge impact on their success or failure.

  1. Battered down brand names/ re-positioning stories:
    • Weight Watchers (WTW):  After a fantastic 50% run-up in the second half of 2014 due to new leadership, improved technology, earnings beats, and revised upward earnings estimates, the stock has mysteriously lost 30% in value over the past 3 weeks alone with no material news other than the fact that some people didn’t “like their new magazine layout”.  I’m still a believer in what the new management team is doing and am looking forward to another nice run.
    • Hertz (HTZ):  Despite being transportation related, I don’t think oil prices will swing the dial much for Hertz; it all comes down to whether the new leadership can execute a successful turnaround and restore investor confidence in their operations, strategy, and reporting.  If they can, this stock has tremendous upside.  If they can’t, you are at least left with an iconic brand name and infrastructure that is near impossible to replicate.
  2. Lower-end consumer product and food companies:
    • YUM Brands (YUM):  People might eat a little more junk food with lower oil prices, but a larger driver of growth for companies like YUM (parent company of KFC, Taco Bell, and Pizza Hut) is their ability to grow into new markets and take share from competitors.  moMANon wrote a great piece on YUM and why he feels that the Pizza Hut re-branding has the potential to take some meaningful market share from its competitors and move the earnings dial for YUM.
  3. Health/ organic oriented food companies:
    • Whitewave Foods (WWAV):  The other day at the grocery store I was shocked to have paid more for a gallon of organic milk for my kids than I typically pay for a gallon of dairy alternatives like soy or almond milk.  Oil prices won’t dictate whether people drink milk or diary alternatives, and Whitewave has been on fire with 10 straight quarters of beating earnings expectations, year-over-year revenue growth exceeding 40% and encouraging new partnerships in china to expand their reach.  ATG is going long again on lactose intolerance.
  4. High Tech:
    • My personal favorite play here is probably Corning (GLW), the leading manufacturer of durable glass for tv’s, phones, and tablets.  I don’t have a great “ATG” theory of why they will outperform other than I just love the company, their market dominance, and ability to continue innovating over the past 100+ years.  Google (GOOGL) also feels cheap to me right now, but if oil prices cause an overall market shock downwards for some reason, I could see the mega-cap, high trading volume companies getting crushed simply from investor fund withdrawals.
  5. Non-equity income and dividend plays (non-energy related of course!):
    • There’s nothing wrong with parking some money in non-equity dividend plays if you are nervous about energy prices rocking the market.  Within the ATG portfolio we have increased our allocation to iShares U.S. Preferred Stock ETF (PFF), a large basket of predominantly bank-related preferred shares that are currently yielding 6.33%.  If low oil prices were to trigger bank defaults, PFF would certainly be impacted, but not nearly as much as the underlying equities would be impacted.

With over 3,000 publicly traded companies in the U.S. alone and who knows how many mutual funds and ETF’s, investors have plenty of opportunities to pick their spots and limit exposure to certain factors of their choosing.  I’m not staying away from the market, but I am staring away from big oil price bets in my personal portfolio for now.

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If You Could Only Hold One Stock for the Next 10-15 Years…

evolution

This was the question I recently posed to over 100 colleagues, friends and family. I was inspired to ask this after coming across an article that Warren Buffet wrote in 1951 at the age of 22, answering this very question. His pick at the time was GEICO insurance- a company he went from buying single shares of for friends and family to eventually owning 100% of (via Berkshire Hathaway) 45 years later. Here’s a link to that article from 1952:

http://basehitinvesting.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/The-Security-I-Like-Best.pdf

Without further adieu, here’s a list of the most common responses to this question with some excerpts of explanations I received. I want to thank everyone who took the time to think about this question and provide their insight.

1. Amazon (AMZN). Valuation be damned! Amazon was far and away the most popular response to this question, with a plethora of reasons provided such as “they will change the way people shop and monetize the incredibly valuable data they have on our behaviors”, “drone delivery and data hosting will be huge”, “they will soon dominate online grocery shopping and delivering”, and “their AWS is rapidly becoming the backbone of the internet”.

2. Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A or BRK.B). Several people cited Berkshire’s amazing historical track record against the S&P 500 with dramatically lower leverage/ beta, respect for Warren Buffet’s proven conservative investing style over the long run, and the safety of a diverse portfolio of assets within the company (railroads, insurance, banks, consumer products, etc.).

AMZN and Berkshire Hathaway accounted for almost 20% of the total responses. The remaining popular responses are presented in alphabetical order:

• Apple (AAPL): “The average person has 3 apple devices in their household and growing… can’t wait for the iRobots”.

• American Airlines (AAL)

• Atlas Pipeline Partners, L.P. (APL): Play on the U.S. natural gas boom.

• Blackstone (BX): “They invested in US Housing in 09/10, European markets in 11/12, and will likely invest in emerging markets at the bottom.” “Huge performance fees, discounted evaluation to traditional investment banks and proven ability to raise new funds.”

• Costco (COST): “Shoppers are becoming more cost conscious in a long-term way of living and Costco has nailed a great shopping experience.”

• John Deere (DE): “Play on rising food prices and the importance of agricultural development/ innovation world-wide.”

• Disney (DIS): “Their brand is worldwide…ESPN, ABC, and movie divisions are all broad based and competitive.”

• General Electric (GE): “A little bit of everything with good management and product mix… plus a 2-4% stable dividend along the way.”

• Google (GOOG): “Game changers…They may not be profitable for 5 years but they are planning ahead for the next 15-20”.

• IBM (IBM)

• Proctor and Gamble (PG): “Proven track record, diversification, and brand names that won’t go away any time soon.”

• Tesla (TSLA):

• Visa (V): “People will continue to need using personal credit to fund individual purchases and business ventures for years to come.”

• Vanguard S&P 500 Index Fund (VFINX): “I’m parroting Buffet and Bogle but it guarantees S&P 500 returns less a 10 bps management fee.”

My pick is Corning (GLW). They have been around for 160 years (since 1851) and are the clear leader in R&D and innovation for specialty glass and ceramic applications. I see our world using more and more specialized glass in the home, the car, the phones, the office, etc. over the next 10-15 years. Corning may be hit by temporary gluts and challenges over time (like the drop in sales to TV manufacturers today), but over the long run I think odds are strong that they’ll stay at the leading edge in glass technology and reward shareholders accordingly.